The world oil market will see a small surplus in 2026 after OPEC+ production increases and higher supply from other producers, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, a further shift from its earlier projections of a deficit.

The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 after widespread predictions of oversupply.

In a monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC said that OPEC+ pumped 43.02 million barrels per day in October, down 73,000 bpd from September despite the output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.

Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies that the world market will show a small surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October's rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.

This marks a further shift from OPEC's earlier projection of a deficit, which provided a more comfortable backdrop for raising production. Last month's report projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd and the September report a shortfall of 700,000 bpd
Oil extended an earlier decline after the report was published and was down over 3% to about $63 a barrel.